Revealed: The Premier League’s most over-performing club as data-crunchers reveal new league table format
The Premier League is at a temporary impasse, giving us time to dig into the detail around a breathless start to the season. To do just that, we have consulted our ever-trusty friends at Opta for a different take on the league table. Which teams shouldn’t be anywhere near where they are, based on the stats? And which North London club have jumped TEN places on their expected position?
They say the league table never lies… but what if it does?
The nascent Premier League season sees Arsenal topping the pile and lowly Wolves bringing up the rear.
The likes of Crystal Palace and Bournemouth have been the success stories of the season so far, while at the other end of the spectrum, Nottingham Forest have already changed manager and find themselves mired in the bottom three.
With the Premier League teams having downed their swords for now, we have consulted Opta to bring you the catchy ‘over/under-performing league table‘, which is calculated from “game-outcome simulations based on individual shot xG”.
In short, it tells us which clubs should – based on the underlying data – find themselves further down the table, and which further up.
Let’s dive in.
Spurs jump TEN places
Tottenham fans might be looking smugly at the table after their win over Leeds took them up to third, but according to Opta, they are the team who are currently over-performing the most – to the tune of a whopping TEN places.
The early Thomas Frank era would certainly look and feel a lot different were his side to be in 13th, but it’s kudos to Kudus and co. for their effectiveness in securing wins when the stats are against them.
That was once more in evidence against Leeds, with The Whites taking more shots (16 v 9), and more shots on target (4 v 3).
Spurs were also well beaten in those categories against Bournemouth back in August, with Andoni Iraola’s Cherries recording more shots (20 v 6) and more shots on target (6 v 1).
Can Spurs continue their upward trajectory this term when the PL action resumes, or will the data trendline come back to haunt them?
Signs of promise for Man Utd?
Manchester United fans also entered the international break with a spring in their step following their team’s serene victory over Sunderland.
That made it three home league wins in a row for the first time since August 2023, and it took them into the top half of the table.
It gets better from there too, as Opta suggest that they should currently be inside the UEFA Champions League spots in fourth, a nod to the underlying strong displays of Ruben Amorim’s still-developing side.
A trip to Liverpool on October 19 when the PL action resumes will reveal more about their revival.
Slot machine punching above weight
Liverpool themselves began the defence of their Premier League crown with five wins from five, but they bookended the period prior to the international window with three losses in a week – two in the league and one away to Galatasaray in the UEFA Champions League.
It’s hardly a disaster to be sitting second in the table, but Opta has their expected position four places lower in sixth, hinting at some of the struggles they have been facing this term.
Some of that can be put down to injuries – right-back has been a problem slot, with Jeremie Frimpong and Conor Bradley both spending time on the sidelines – but also the big turnover of personnel, especially in attack.
Hugo Ekitike started the season well but has only scored once since August 25, Florian Wirtz is yet to register a goal contribution for his new club, and Alexander Isak is still working his way back to full fitness.
Getting his new forwards fit and firing will likely be top of Arne Slot’s wishlist when they reconvene following the international action.
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