Man City take huge step – but who does supercomputer back for UEFA Champions League qualification? Premier League set for nailbiting finale
The run-in proper is under way. Matters at the very top and bottom of the Premier League table might be all but a done deal, but there is a huge amount on the line as a gaggle of five teams duke it out for the final three spots and the considerable prize of UEFA Champions League qualification. Opta’s supercomputer has been whirring again to unfurl its predictions ahead of the season finale.
With time running out in this Premier League season, just four points separate third and seventh place in the table.
It’s that tight that the complexion of a campaign could turn in the blink of an eye, as Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle United, Chelsea and Aston Villa all seek to finish in the top five, securing a spot in the lucrative UEFA Champions League – thanks to England acquiring an extra spot in the competition due to its burgeoning coefficient.
City claimed a dramatic and crucial victory over Villa on Tuesday night, thanks to a stoppage-time winner from Matheus Nunes. The 2-1 win took City into third place in the table.
That came after Forest’s 2-1 win over Spurs on Monday, as Nuno Espirito Santo’s put their bid for a top-five finish back on track.
Man City last four PL fixtures
- Wolves (h)
- Southampton (a)
- Bournemouth (h)
- Fulham (a)
Forest last five PL fixtures
- Brentford (h)
- Crystal Palace (a)
- Leicester (h)
- West Ham (a)
- Chelsea (h)
Newcastle last five PL fixtures
- Ipswich (h)
- Brighton (a)
- Chelsea (h)
- Arsenal (a)
- Everton (h)
Chelsea last five PL fixtures
- Everton (h)
- Liverpool (h)
- Newcastle (a)
- Man Utd (h)
- Forest (a)
Aston Villa last four PL fixtures
- Fulham (h)
- Bournemouth (a)
- Spurs (h)
- Man Utd (a)
Dare we say Forest look like they might have the most amenable last five matches? Or could Newcastle benefit from playing an Arsenal side that could potentially be readying itself for a Champions League final? And can Chelsea battle a stacked run-in to somehow grab a top-five spot?
What else is on the line?
Outside of the top-five race, there are a whole gamut of implications, permutations and complications that surround the race for Europe.
Firstly, there could yet be a sixth English team in the Champions League next season, given that the Europa League winners – should they finish outside the top five – will net a place in the UCL.
With Manchester United and Spurs both well down the Premier League table and into the semi-finals of the UEFA Europa League, one of their campaigns could yet end on a big high.
While the sixth-placed finishers in this season’s PL will secure a Europa League spot, the other UEL place goes to the winners of the FA Cup – with Man City, Forest, Crystal Palace and Villa the four teams left in that competition.
But should one of those teams qualify for the Champions League or Europa League by virtue of their league placing, then that second UEL spot will go to the next highest Premier League finishers that have not qualified for UEFA competitions.
Newcastle have already secured UEFA Conference League football next term by winning the EFL Cup, but again should they qualify for the Champions League or the Europa League via their Premier League finish, then the spot will be passed down.
Finally, Chelsea – if they win the Conference League – will qualify for next season’s Europa League, meaning that a team lower down the PL – and again, one that has not already qualified for UEFA competitions – will stand to potentially gain a spot in the UECL.
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