2023: Ex Presidential Aide, Omokri Predicts Where APC Will Zone It’s Ticket, PDP’s Fate

Former media aide to ex- president Goodluck Jonathan, Reno Omokri, have predicted that the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC), will zone its 2023 presidential ticket to the south west region.

Omokri stated this amid speculations that his former boss, Jonathan has intentions of defecting from PDP to APC to run for 2023 presidency.

Omokri in an article he titled; “how to lose the 2023 election” advised candidate from the south eastern region against picking the N100m APC form, maintaining that election is won by number of votes and not sentiments.

Analyzing the possibility of zoning APC ticket to south west, Omokri argued that the region generated about 4million votes against the south east which generated lesser votes.

“….if the All Progressive Congress picks someone from the Southwest as their Presidential candidate, and that person picks his or her running mate from either the NW (8.2 million votes in 2019), or the NC (4.5 million votes in 2019), how does the People’s Democratic Party intend to win by picking its Presidential candidate from any zone with a weaker voting strength than the Southwest, Northwest, Northeast (4.3 million votes in 2019) and North-central?”

“the People’s Democratic Party intend to win by picking its Presidential candidate from any zone with a weaker voting strength than the Southwest, Northwest, Northeast (4.3 million votes in 2019) and North-central?”

Recall that there have been clamor for a south easterner to take over the presidential seat of Nigeria as other regions have taking a fair share.

Further in his argument, Omokri noted that the PDP will loose if it gives ticket to Omokri’s friend who is in his 60’s (possibly Peter Obi).

“So while I empathize with those who believe that a particular candidate, who happens to be my friend, and who is in his 60s, should be given the PDP ticket on a platter of gold, because he is the best candidate in their opinion, I know for a fact that the PDP will LOSE if it is foolish enough to try that.”

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How To Lose The 2023 Election

The easiest way to lose the 2023 election is to allow sentiments cloud your judgment. Politics tends to be a zero sum game. And while you can campaign on sentiments, you must strategize based on reality. The simple reason for this is that you have political opposition. And they are not going to allow sentiments blind them, even if you let them blind you.

Now, what are the realities? Whether we like it or not, the Northwest had the highest voter turnout in the 2019 Nigerian Presidential election, while the Southeast had the lowest. I am not just talking about voter registration numbers here. I am referring to the percentage of eligible voters who actually turned up to vote on Election Day.

Instead of getting angry about this and looking for who to insult or blame, learn to accept facts. That is the first step in improving them in the future. 

The All Progressives Congress looks likely to hand its ticket to a person of Southwestern origin. This is almost 75% certain. Any person of Southeast origin who actually coughs up ₦100 million for the APC’s Presidential nomination form is actually delusional.

If you believe that a party jointly controlled by a man who insulted Igbos as “a dot in a circle”, and another man whose wife publicly said “Igbo we no dey trust una” will allow you get their Presidential ticket, you are a big F**L, who deserves to lose his money!

The man in Aso Rock already told you his mind on July 25, 2015, when he said those who gave him ‘5% of their votes can’t be treated the same as those who gave him 97%’. You are a five percenter, and you want to pay ₦100 million for APC’s Presidential nomination form. No be juju be that?

Now, bear in mind that in 2019, the Southwest delivered almost 4 million votes, while the Southeast delivered 2 million votes.

So, as a mathematician, if the All Progressive Congress picks someone from the Southwest as their Presidential candidate, and that person picks his or her running mate from either the NW (8.2 million votes in 2019), or the NC (4.5 million votes in 2019), how does the Peoples Democratic Party intend to win by picking its Presidential candidate from any zone with a weaker voting strength than the Southwest, Northwest, Northeast (4.3 million votes in 2019) and North-central?

As I have previously said, elections are won by votes, not by sentiments. Sadly, Nigeria’s politics has not evolved to the point where a political party can win an election based solely on what a candidate brings to the table intrinsically. I would like for Nigeria to be like that, but we are not there yet.

The reality is that you can actually predict the outcome of an election based on where the candidates come from.

So while I empathize with those who believe that a particular candidate, who happens to be my friend, and who is in his 60s, should be given the PDP ticket on a platter of gold, because he is the best candidate in their opinion, I know for a fact that the PDP will LOSE if it is foolish enough to try that.

I come from a microscopic ethnic minority. My ethnic nationality may very well be one of the smallest in Nigeria. We have compensated for our small numbers by knowing how to think and act devoid of sentiments, and with political precision.

In 1999, the Southwest got the Presidency on a platter of gold because, to correct the historical wrong of June 12, 1993, both major political parties conceded their Presidential tickets to the Southwest. Barring a repeat of that, any region that wants to produce the President of Nigeria has to achieve that by making ruthlessly precise political moves.

Merely stating ‘it is our turn’ and insulting the life out of people who do not agree with you (instead of attempting to persuade them, which people of this mindset are not even making the slightest attempt to do) will just lead to four more years in the political wilderness.

Let me use the Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, as an example to some regions. This man is from the Northwest. His zone delivered 8.2 million votes during the 2019 Presidential election. Yet, he is gentlemanly going round Nigeria consulting, appealing, persuading, kneeling, stooping, and genuflecting.

Now, how do you expect to defeat someone like him, or others from the NE and NC, when instead of persuading, you are so antagonistic to anybody who cannot see 2023 exactly as you see it?

You cannot be advised, or counselled. The minute anyone tries to give you insight, you either lecture them, or you heap opprobrium on them. Ore wa, the problem with you is you.